Survivorship Bias makes us focus on winners and forget the ones who didn't succeed, because the obstacles they have faced are not as visible.
We get drawn to stories of super successful people. We imagine ourselves doing what they did. So, we start copying their methods.
But we don't realize that what worked for them might not work for us..
You’ve probably seen this picture. During WW2, planes were being shot down and needed more armor.
The Army noticed bullet holes were not evenly distributed across returning planes, with fuselage and fuel systems taking more hits than engines. So, they wanted to add armor where there were more bullet holes.
Abraham Wald had a different idea. He suggested adding armor to the engines, even though they had fewer hits. Why? The planes with engine damage weren't returning. So, the extra armor should protect the part that couldn't survive many hits, not the part that could.
So why should we care about survivorship bias? It's crucial to be aware of it because it impacts our perception, judgment, and the quality of our conclusions. Focusing on only part of the data can lead to overly optimistic conclusions, misinterpretation of correlation, or even incomplete decision-making.
📺 If you want to learn more about this bias, check this video out.
What if we stopped focusing on success stories and turned our attention to the ones that didn't quite make it?
By examining what went wrong, we can identify patterns, mistakes, and oversights that contributed to their failure. This information is incredibly useful for fine-tuning our strategies and processes, allowing us to avoid similar pitfalls in the future.
Instead of sticking to the traditional narrative around success, this fresh perspective encourages us to dig deeper into the factors that contribute to failure. It helps us build more resilient and adaptable approaches in various aspects of life.
So, the next time you're looking for inspiration or guidance, consider taking a closer look at the stories of those who experienced setbacks along the way to their goals. You might just find that the most valuable lessons lie in their stories of struggle and perseverance.
Learn from the mistakes of others, and turn their failures into triumphs. After all, sometimes the most valuable insights come from the paths less traveled.
By staying aware of survivorship bias and being transparent about your assumptions, you'll be well on your way to making better decisions! But how do you do that?
Be a Data Detective
Whenever you make a decision, start by asking what's missing. Think about the data that didn't “survive” and dig a little deeper to find those hidden nuggets of information. Taking a moment to pause, reflect, and some research will help you make more informed choices, keeping survivorship bias at bay.
Choose Your Data Sources Wisely
To avoid survivorship bias in your work and research, be picky about the data sources you use. Make sure they're accurate and don't leave out any crucial observations that could change the outcome of your analysis or decision-making. Aim for data sources that cover both positive and negative results for a well-rounded perspective.
Be Careful when Giving Advice
You might be a “survivor” yourself!
Without even realizing it, if you've tasted success in any area, it's likely that you've been blessed with a little bit of luck along the way. And that's something others might not experience. So, let's stay aware of that and avoid painting a picture of absolute certainty for others.
Could you take one minute to give us feedback? We want to learn from you. Thanks in advance!
